Where Franchising Is Going in 2009

If someone claims to know what will happen in the business of franchising through 2009, don’t believe him or her. It is going to be that kind of a year. A multiple of answers and voices are more fitting, and a great deal has to do with which industry faces disappointment and which flows through successfully. However, do not calculate out the prosperous possibilities that franchising transports to national and global competition for financial success.

Franchising firms will traverse some very defiant marketplaces, while stretching cash flow, paying excessive costs for quality lead generation, and begging for credit to operate while helping franchisees buy into the system. Credit remains a foremost stumbling block in 2009. Most industries under the big tent of franchising suffer from the credit crash, others will not. Retail real estate is cold, with malls across the country foreclosing in 2009, shuttering franchise-leased space with little notice. We will see hotels, shopping hub big box stores, and strip centers go dark, as commercial mortgages fail and lenders walk away, stung by huge financial losses and devaluation of property.

Chains now look exhaustingly to their leadership to rewire the business plans for survival. Outside franchise consultants, retail experts and business industry specialists will be in demand to solve the retail vagueness and economic puzzle. Job losses will race to nearly double-digit scores as the nation and the world heads through a prolonged recession. This recession has already produced penny-conscious buyers putting a needs test to everything they purchase. Overall spending will be down in '09. Perceived mid-level shopping, where retail is king, has the products the shopper is contented to buy. Branded chains will provide reward points to stabilize customers while insuring repeat buyers. Spending habits change by the day with fewer stores available to buyers, who stake out their territory for shopping and drive only in that area. The coveted age group of 20 to 40 now understands the financial insecurity and risks that come with frivolous buying. Careful spending changes retail’s approach to this market, and many of the industries within franchising.

Paring of store inventories will produce faster product turnaround sales while catching new wave products, all helping to move through the season quickly. This will help bring shoppers back. It is not your mother or father’s kind of marketing. This is niche servicing. Mom and pop will gain plenty of attention from franchisors in the care industries, including home and health, entertainment, education and physical fitness.

For those who have built good branded chains, and are ready to spin them off to a venture capital or private equity firm, think again. What you valued your system at last year, is not what it is worth today. Plan on working longer to build up solid equity value, or sell for less. Franchising has never been a good bet for quick-change leadership. You must know your franchisees, their family members, personal financial position, health, and embrace this package. It is a way of life, not a road to financial welfare for the founder or investor.

Franchising is still in command with a staggering 41 to 43 percent of our nation’s total retail sales and service dollars pouring through the system, according to International Franchise Association figures. It’s an employment engine on fire and it produces wealth right through economic hard times. You don’t need an MBA to succeed. Everyone is in it together to win. Franchising is the profitable wonder machine that plows through all challenges and persistently produces success. It’s constantly achieving growth across our nation and around the world year after year.

The modern method of franchising is a powerhouse for investors too. They clamor to buy more branded systems, rework them, build up the value, and sell them to another investor. Franchising is a colossal international movement of broad-based business segments. Franchising is a privilege filled with responsibilities, a series of successful habits predicated upon a few great thoughts implemented by good employees, and driven by visionary leadership.

In franchising, we let others do the pioneering; and then, with franchisees, we do it bigger, more quickly, and efficiently in large numbers. The founder took the time, economic risk, built the business model, while showing the franchisee how to do it, upgrading the system along the way. Franchising is to succeed through the work of others. The franchisor has done all the testing and costly up-front mistakes in the marketplace. Dynamic relations between the franchisor and franchisee exist to promote the growth of the chain. This allows for solid communications, superior customer experience, and street-driven sales knowledge flowing in both directions. Each party shares in the commitment and vision as they march lockstep to establish values, foster brand development, create corporate culture, set marketing directions, and cultivate bottom-line-enhancing worth.

Franchising invites everyone to join. And 2009 will be an especially challenging 12 months, while it crosses all lines of society and embraces almost anyone who is ready, willing, and able to work. In franchising, the success of both the franchisee and the franchisor is truly dependent upon the success of each other. That symbiotic relationship thrives on the willingness to prepare for success. Through constant and consistent training of the franchisee, franchisors strive to improve and to increase the system’s value. But each entity must be willing to invest in the other.

Successful franchisees are captivated by the business while investing in their future. They should be infatuated with the force that goes into the thriving development expansion and basic commerce of the brand they buy into for growth. They will possess good work habits, business ethics, people skills and a burning in the belly.

At the same time franchisors in 2009 become so because they have come to wisdom through success and failure alike. Very little wisdom emanates just from success alone. I’ve found that franchisees buy into the system because they are betting on the quality of the franchisor’s failures as much as the quality of the success. Franchisors must eliminate the franchisee’s reason for failure. To remove risk, franchisors are obliged to consistently test, refine and add to their products and services that augment the brand value for both parties.

For the last year in this decade, what will make franchising successful in this strapped economy are the franchisors’ tested methods of doing business and their unending search for good franchisees to grow the system with new units. They’re looking for someone who wishes to borrow as much as the other is willing to lend, and at the same time remain focused on the common progress of that system. Franchising itself is bountiful enough for the non-pioneer and the pioneer to walk next to each other equally.

With this demanding economy, nobody said that franchising was easy or that it didn’t take hard work to be successful. The secret that makes the business of franchising thrive so soundly lies in the people who make it run. Essential knowledge for any employer is that there are three ways to get a job accomplished---you do it yourself, you employ someone or you forbid your children to do it!

Without a quality workforce and unwavering management team the franchising system of business could not provide the excellent price points, branded quality, consistent training and elevated efficiency of service for which it’s celebrated worldwide. Success in franchising implies optimism, mutual competence and fair play. Franchisors have to hold a high opinion of the worth of their company, what they sell, and feel that the product or service they provide is the best their employees can produce for their business. Franchising makes the world a much better place in which to live and to work, and acknowledges everyone’s success throughout a branded system. Franchisors have faith in their organization and their staffs, that they have a profound desire to help others succeed. Clear, definite vision and consciousness allow them to generate the fusion of people working together with franchisees.

In this new global economy, franchisees pay less attention to what franchisors say and more attention to what they do. This brings even more focus on the franchise system workforce. A dynamic franchisor hires quality people whom he or she encourages and enable to become the finest employees they can be. Those destined for success never underestimate the ability of their workforce to exceed their expectations as they labor toward a better tomorrow.

If you are a franchisor planning to succeed in an economy filled with valleys, hills, mountains, rivers, tight credit and techno-driven business plans, the following guideposts will help you navigate this brave new world:

  • You must be a risk taker to discover the new opportunities and lose sight of the shore to find the ocean.

  • Make the ordinary the extraordinary and look ever forward into a Technicolor marketplace that is changing under your feet.

  • Assemble a management team that shares your passion with an unyielding workforce. Time should not be boundaries.

  • Be obsessive about commitment to execution. Clearly focus on achieving one goal at a time and know it when you get there.
  • Possess an uncompromising, steadfast moral business compass. Work reflects your life along with what you are and who you are.

  • Match your business with other businesses that complement and embrace your zeal and values. One and one make three in this economy.

  • Be confident enough to help and encourage others along the way. This responsibility may not be fulfilled, but will always be rewarded. Everyone and everything around you is a teacher. Continue teaching your franchisees bottom-line enhancements.

  • If you can’t explain it to your mother or grandmother, you really shouldn’t do it.

You cannot demonstrate leadership by pointing in the direction you want to go and telling people to go there. Leaders go to that place. They show the way. People will follow their leader. We must instill passion in the workplace and let people know it is a mistake to believe they are merely working for the company. Always strive for employees to work with you and not for you, just as franchisees work for themselves, in their units, but not by themselves. For franchising in 2009, it’s seeing what other people don’t see and pursuing that vision first with good people.

End of Part 1 of a 2 part series. Read Where Franchising Is Going, Part 2

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© Copyright Franchise Recruiters Ltd., Published by Blue MauMau with permission.

Jerry Wilkerson is a former president and executive director of the International Franchise Association in Washington, D.C. and founder of Franchise Recruiters Ltd., an international franchise management executive search corporation with offices in Chicago and Toronto. He recently completed his 31st year in the business of franchising. For more information or clarification, contact Jerry Wilkerson, 708.757.5595 or email franchise@att.net. Visit franchiserecruiters.com.

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Re: Where Franchising Is Going in 2009

Mr. Wilkerson starts off by saying "If someone claims to know what will happen in the business of franchising through 2009, don't believe him or her". Then he continues to forecast the future of franchising. Are you telling us you are lying Mr. Wilkerson?

Read Wilkerson article

Actually, Wilkerson is not forecasting the future of franchising, and unfortunately the title of the article does not reflect the substance which provides solid operating tips for any environment.

Wilkerson does make some very good points.

My objection to Part 1 is that Wilkerson clings to the old IFA view that "Franchising is the profitable wonder machine that plows through all challenges and persistently produces success."

Such hyperbole is not credible with an increasingly sophisticated (and jaded) audience, and even the IFA is adopting a more nuanced view: Matt Shay discussing ways of encouraging good practices by franchisors is a tacit acknowledgement that a few bad apples are indeed out there and that they can be the impetus for legislation adversely affecting the interests of well-behaved franchisors.

As noted many times on BMM, there are a small number of zors which dominate the Bad Boy Franchise News.

In failing to distinguish the wheat from the chaff, the risk is not simply legislative action, it is also that prospective purchasers will read about a Quiznos or UPS Store or Cuppys Coffee scandal and assume that since all franchisors are basically the same, these practices are followed industry-wide and hence buying a franchise is foolish.

That is not the case, but in a media environment where scandal spreads across the internet, it behooves franchise supporters to avoid having all franchisors tarred with the same brush.

Wilkerson is a welcome addition to balanced viewpoint presentation on BMM, and I would hope that he will continue to give insight as to "best practices" in the franchise industry.

Paul Steinberg
Franchisee Attorney, New York City, Ph: 212-529-5400

Agree and disagree Paul

The idea that making something a franchise imbues it with magical properties clearly belongs in the dustbin of history.

I think, however, that there are more than just a few bad apples out there and I ceased being surprised to see flagrant franchisor law violators sporting the IFA symbol on their materials many rotten apples ago. (Whether this reflects the IFA's liberal admission standards or poor policing of its trademark I leave for others to decide.) The bad apples don't all make the news.

Chain management

You lawyers and buying advocates are quickly getting off the topic and into franchisee issues. The subject is: what are a few best practices of franchising chains that are looking ever more useful in this rough economy?

Please put your management hat on. Anyone have any thoughts about this statement in the article:

"Paring of store inventories will produce faster product turnaround sales while catching new wave products, all helping to move through the season quickly."

Darnelle, let me ask the question a little differently

What are a few best practices of franchising chains, that also convey a net value to the franchisees, that an independent businessperson could not realistically undertake for himself or herself?

I'm sincerely interested in the answer to that question.

Re: Darnelle, let me ask the question a little differently

I would suggest, in these times, strongly negotiating with suppliers to deliver a profitable value priced offering and a large marketing campaign to promote it to the masses.

FuwaFuwaUsagi

"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers." 

Chain management

Nope. I'm not interested in the merits / demerits of a franchise compared to an independent start-up. It is not the topic of this article.

I want to talk management and so does the writer.

Mr. Blue, can you move the off-topic comments?

Really?

"I'm not interested in the merits / demerits of a franchise compared to an independent start-up."

Then when you posed this question: "what are a few best practices of franchising chains that are looking ever more useful in this rough economy?" to whom were you concerned about being "useful"?

Wilkerson expertise

Mr. Wilkerson has a lot of expertise in franchising, and has a historical perspective greater than most consultants. There are masses of management mavens out there, but a tiny subset of those specialize in franchising.

So I agree with Mr. Morrill, and moreover I do believe that BMM needs more focus on management/marketing issues with a franchise-centric analysis.

Paul Steinberg
Franchisee Attorney, New York City, Ph: 212-529-5400

Paring inventory / SKU

Darnelle writes:

Please put your management hat on. Anyone have any thoughts about this statement:

"Paring of store inventories will produce faster product turnaround sales while catching new wave products, all helping to move through the season quickly."

 

As to inventory in the sense of amount of any particular product in stock at a given time, this is true so long as you are able to keep enough in stock so that you don't have to turn customers away.

Back when Finkelstein ran Macy*s into the ground in the early '90s, the one thing he did right was manage to keep a razor-thin but sufficient inventory as bankruptcy loomed. But that is an awfully difficult task. Some franchisors such as Subway arrange for very frequent inventory delivery (I used to get 2x/week deliveries) to minimize carrying costs, but you have to have enough buying clout and good purchasing agents.

If we are speaking of different items for sale (Stock Keeping Units, or SKUs) that is a more ticklish story. People do get used to their favorites, and when Brenneman cut back on the number of chip varieties offered at Quizno's, there was customer resistance. Just yesterday I was at the Dunkin opposite the Queens courthouse when a debate broke out on the customer line when it was announced that Dunkin' has discontinued the toasted coconut doughnut.

...well, now I'm starving...off to lunch...

Paul Steinberg
Franchisee Attorney, New York City, Ph: 212-529-5400

Minimizing Inventory

Wilkerson states, "Paring of store inventories will produce faster product turnaround sales while catching new wave products, all helping to move through the season quickly." He makes a great point.

In a past life, I was in charge of international logistics and operations. In thinking of controlling inventory, I think of 7-Eleven Japan's "just-in-time" pioneering efforts in the 80s and 90s. They used a form of the kanban pull-through system in retailing. When the customer consumed, the inventory replacement system went into gear.

Japan's 7-Eleven was so competitive and effective in minimizing inventory costs that they soon dominated the Japanese landscape. They quickly were in a position to show the American operations how to pioneer retailing practices. Eventually, the original 7-Eleven company in North America was taken over by their Japanese master franchise. 7-Eleven North America is owned by Seven & I Holdings Company of Japan.

The size of a convenience store and available shelf space allotted to a product was less than in the U.S.  Because of this limitation and because of the inroads that Prof. W. Edwards Deming made in Japan after World War II in statistical process control, Japanese convenience store chain management had the mindset of being extremely efficient and methodical in keeping the inventory for their store shelves to a minimum while still effectively meeting customer demand. They did not have the associated costs that their U.S. counterparts had.

When deliveries are infrequent, stores have high inventory costs because they have to keep more goods. But as Paul points out, too many deliveries can also cause problems. Vendor trucks delivering $15 in goods to retailers not only individually can create delivery cost bubbles, but also collectively caused Japanese city streets to clog up. BusinessWeek says that sparked 7-Eleven to work on not just pushing costs off to vendors, but also to begin consolidating costs of deliveries:

"The retail industry is the real bottleneck, and some of its leaders are scurrying after solutions. By careful scheduling, 7-Eleven Stores has managed to slash the number of trucks visiting each store per day from 70 to 12. "The key isn't frequent delivery, it's optimum delivery," says Moriya Unozawa, director of distribution. The Ministry of International Trade & Industry is praising the convenience-store chain for its efficiency. If others don't follow, they'll be stuck in traffic." — BusinessWeek

I don't think many in the U.S. can imagine that sort of frequency and efficiency for a small retail franchise. Japanese franchisees experienced 70 deliveries a day by various vendors. That's a lot for a small convenience store. Considerable costs were passed on to vendors. Moreover, as a customer bought, the inventory was tracked and automated throughout the supply chain.

Here in the U.S., Coca-Cola (a product franchisor) is quite famous for their supply chain management efforts of the 90s. Coca-Cola used activity-based costing that showed supermarket and convenience store customers that activities for different products were different, leading to hidden costs that were not being accounted for. This was a useful tool to help retailers decide which products to handle themselves, which to have vendors handle, and which to pare.

Wilkerson makes a good point in saying, "It is not your mother or father’s kind of marketing." These sorts of supply chain management efficiencies allowed considerable price savings to be passed on to the consumer. Besides lower prices, paring down products also helped create a more crystal-clear marketing image to the consumer of what could be expected at the store.

There still was considerable diversity in product centers. My favorite thing to buy at a Japanese 7-Eleven was fresh rice balls — onigiri. On the way to the door, I could make a few A4-size color copies (a metric size close to American letter-size paper) at the 7-Eleven copy center. It was the equivalent of just twelve cents a sheet some six years ago, which was a fraction of the retail price of the cheapest color copies in the U.S.

Debasing the Franchise Coinage

Howard,

Commercial history would seem to favour your perspective over Paul's.

Good margins attracts investors' attention. Short-term investors look for industries with no or ineffective restraint on their opportunistic management practices (no penalty for "bad" behavior).

  • The tip of the iceberg is created with confidentiality agreements and the psychology of cooling out the mark. To speak their truth would be to reveal the ex-franchisee as a traitor to their peers.

Incentives disfavour "good" systems in relation to the the free pass the rogues receive. The low quality pushes out the high quality practices.

The trade association's "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval" is useful to both types of franchising offers.

Les Stewart MBA
Understanding Franchising

Challenges to franchising efforts in 2009

We are pleased to have Mr. Wilkerson blog with the Blue MauMau community. This article is about building franchise systems and the economic trends that might impact franchisors in 2009.

Please post comments about buying a franchise or legal factors of buying a franchise in articles that are labeled with a "buy" or "legal" category, or post such remarks in the appropriate forum.

Where is franchising go in '09

Dear Franchise folk: I would like to warmly thank you for your time, effort, and experience you have given to my piece posted this week. I dearly appreciate your input and I kindly welcome more. I did not think anyone would even read my position, much less respond. When you get to my place in the life circle, most times nobody gives a damn as to what you have to say, nor cares. I am still working full time, and I hope young enough to learn and continue to make a living for my family. I look to you for the directions. You are the light, and am only the mirror reflecting your image and your good work.

What I would really like to learn from you is what you think about where franchising is going in '09. Not necessaryly through litigation either. Give me your input on marketing, browing, cash flow, new franchisees, credit, training, products and services, sales of systems, what can be done to make franchising stronger, really what I would like to learn is, where you see the business going under these market tough economic conditions. I trust your opinions and solicit them.

Oh, by the way, the IFA thing, I seperated a few years back from active participation and membership in the organization, and not necessaryly in a kind and friendly way. After attending 28 straight annual conventions, I droped out because I did not like the direction the IFA was going and the positions they took in my business. I since feel they may have lost their way. That is just my opinion. But I do not wish them any ill will. The entire thing is still rather personal and painful to me.

If I could respectfully request that you pen us your comments and opinions on the direction of franchising in '09, I would be most grateful. I thank you kindly for your time and efforts. May I wish you and yours the warmest of holidays, and hope for a better New Year with peace on earth, and our military fighting men and women back home with family and neighbors. Let's sprinkle in a bit of good will toward men and women while we are at it. Thank you all so very sincerely. jw

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